Counter Strike 2, more commonly referred to as CS2, is currently Valve’s most popular game. At any given moment, usually more than 1,000,000 people are playing it. A big part of the game’s stratospheric success is thanks to the dozens of cases and thousands of skins which can be collected and traded. Some of the rarer guns, knives, gloves and stickers are worth tens of thousands of dollars.
Naturally, the chance of making thousands of dollars from opening a single case can be very enticing, but it isn’t cheap to open cases. So, is opening cases in CS2 worth it? Let’s find out!
Beginner’s Luck – Is It Real?
Now I must make this very, very clear – this could be a pure coincidence but equally there may be something to this theory. At the end of the day, no one except Valve really knows the true odds. The following is just my personal experience.
Both me and my friend have unboxed pretty valuable knives from opening cases. On the 5th case I opened I got a default survival knife (worth about £300 at the time), which obviously meant I actually made a profit.
My friend is even luckier – he has only opened about 100 cases in total over the years, but has gotten multiple top tier knives and gloves, including an Ursus Knife – Fade. He’s made thousands of dollars worth of profit from opening cases.
Here’s the thing though – we’ve both been incredibly lucky.
Let me tell you about our other friend. He’s opened over 300 cases over the years, and has only ever had a single red (highest rarity normal skin) in total, meaning he has lost hundreds and hundreds of dollars from opening cases. Statistically, what’s more likely to be the outcome for you is this.
The Odds Are Stacked Against You
Although there is a possibility you unbox an incredibly valuable skin after only opening a handful of cases, there’s also a much higher chance you get absolutely nothing. According to CSGOSkins.gg, there is around a 1 in 400 chance of getting a legendary item (knife or gloves depending on the case). On the other hand, there’s around an 80% chance you will get a Mil-Spec skin. Almost all of these are effectively worthless and will almost certainly guarantee you have lost money.
Are Any CS2 Cases Profitable?
Statistically, there are no profitable CS2 cases to open – that is, unless you’re a full time YouTuber or Streamer and can subsidize the openings with money you make from your videos.
With a massive sample size, Rivalry found that the least unprofitable case had an average return on investment of 61.07%, which is the Operation Wildfire case. That still isn’t great though – that means for every $1000 worth of cases you open, you will lose about $390. And that’s for the best case, mind you. Some cases return as little as 30% or less.
With all of this information now available to us, it’s very clear that opening cases is unlikely to be a profitable venture, unless you are doing it for the sake of making content. There’s an extremely high likelihood of losing money.
Why Do People Open CS2 Cases Then?
There are a number of reasons people open CS2 cases despite the high likelihood of losing money. Firstly, many Counter Strike players just open the odd few now and then for a bit of fun. Most people know there’s a high likelihood of making a loss, but the chance of unboxing their dream skin which is otherwise way too expensive makes the risk worth it. Opening cases is pretty fun, I must admit. Even with the knowledge I have than opening CS2 cases is probably not going to make me any money, my friends and I will still occasionally open a couple here and there.
There’s also the insane rush you get when you do actually land on something crazy. I still remember my first knife, it doesn’t even feel real for the first minute afterwards. You just can’t believe how lucky you are when you do actually get something great.
It’s not quite the same, but that same element of surprise as opening a Kinder Egg or a wrapped birthday present is there. Except it wasn’t a gift and you probably didn’t get anything good. Often, it’s like opening a box and hoping for a Rolex but getting a pair of socks instead.
Are There Better Alternatives To Opening CS2 Cases?
Purely from a statistical standpoint, yes. There are dozens of high-quality, reputable CS2 gambling sites run by third parties that actually offer more favourable odds. Yes, there’s still a high chance of losing the skins you deposit, but a little bit less so in many cases.
CS2 gambling sites often allow you to bet smaller amounts than the £2 or so that it costs for a single case key in CS2. There are sites that allow you to gamble with pennies at a time, meaning you can play for a good bit longer than if you were to instead open cases in CS2. There are even a number of case opening sites, which let you open cases but with a different array of prizes, often with better displayed odds too.
These casinos often have a much wider range of games to choose from too. There’s a really popular one called crash, where the ROI multiplier continues rising before suddenly crashing. The key is to lock in your profit before the price crashes and you lose. It’s super fun and makes a great alternative to just opening cases.
As with all gambling sites though, there’s still a good chance you lose money in the long run.
What Are The Best CS2 Gambling Sites?
There are far too many great CS2 gambling sites to list in a short article such as this, but we have a ton of amazing sites we’ve personally used and reviewed on our home page.
Alternatively, you can take a look at our top picks for the best CS2 gambling sites here.